The October U.S. CPI report showed consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, beating the 0.3% forecast. Core CPI also came in hotter than expected, increasing 0.3% as Americans weighed the risk of another Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

Bitcoin and other risk assets sold off around the release. Leveraged crypto traders soon faced a wave of forced closures.

The BLS released the report on November 10, 2026. It omitted year-over-year inflation rates because the agency did not collect October 2025 prices during the government shutdown.

Contents

• October U.S. CPI rose faster than expected while core inflation stayed firm
• The BLS published the figures as the Fed weighs its next move
• The shutdown left October 2025 out of the inflation comparison
• Markets repriced risk after the inflation release
• Food and energy rose as housing inflation cooled slightly
• October's monthly readings exceeded the cited forecast ranges
• Other inflation readings and the December decision are next
• FAQ

October U.S. CPI rose faster than expected while core inflation stayed firm

Headline and core figures both topped forecasts

Headline CPI climbed 0.4% from September, less than its 0.6% increase in the prior month but above the 0.3% forecast. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%, matching September and beating the 0.2% estimate.

That marked the third consecutive monthly increase of 0.3% in core prices, according to BeInCrypto. Headline inflation eased from September, but underlying price pressure remained persistent.

The release landed at 8:30 a.m. ET

The BLS published the October report on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Bitcoin traded between $74,770 and $73,525 on Binance during the five minutes that followed, a sharp swing in a narrow window around the inflation announcement.

The coin closed the five-minute window near $73,709, down 0.9%, before recovering to around $73,918 by 8:36 a.m. ET. The sell-off accelerated during the release window, though Bitcoin was already moving before the figures arrived.

Ether slipped 1.9% around the announcement and, according to reports, fell below $2,050. Bitcoin dropped below $74,000 as well. Both tokens touched their lowest levels in 11 weeks.

Why the report had no annual CPI rate

The shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting October 2025 prices, leaving the agency without a comparison base. It therefore did not publish year-over-year headline or core inflation rates with the October release.

Economists had forecast annual increases of 3.9% for headline CPI and 2.8% for core CPI. Those figures remained forecasts rather than published October results, leaving the monthly readings as the report’s main inflation signal.

The BLS published the figures as the Fed weighs its next move

The statistics agency and the central bank have different roles

The BLS gathered and published the consumer-price data; the Federal Reserve sets monetary policy. With its next rate decision due in December, policymakers will consider the October inflation readings alongside broader conditions facing borrowers.

Fed Governor Chris Waller argued overnight that the central bank should raise rates next month even if CPI came in soft, CoinDesk reported. He also said the Fed might consider a 50-basis-point move if inflation proved strong.

The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% in October. Chair Kevin Warsh tied tighter financial conditions at the time to AI-driven demand, adding another factor for policymakers to consider in December.

Rate-hike expectations were already elevated

Traders had fully priced in a December rate increase before the release, with some accounts placing the odds at 84%. A December move was already central to investor calculations.

The October report then delivered a hotter-than-forecast monthly headline reading and a core figure above estimates. The Fed still has time to weigh further data before its meeting, including additional inflation releases.

Higher borrowing costs also weighed on crypto funds. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds had shed $1.28 billion as December rate-hike odds climbed, a development flagged before the CPI release. That outflow added to pressure on crypto exposure alongside an existing market decline.

The shutdown left October 2025 out of the inflation comparison

A missing base interrupted the year-over-year series

The government shutdown in effect at the time kept the BLS from collecting October 2025 prices. Without that base, the agency could not calculate its usual annual CPI comparisons for October 2026.

Both headline and core annual rates were affected. Monthly figures remained available: headline inflation rose 0.4% in October, while core prices gained 0.3%.

September gives the available month-to-month comparison

Headline CPI rose 0.6% in September, compared with 0.3% for core CPI. October’s headline pace slowed, but the core rate stayed at 0.3% for a third straight month.

The contrast shaped the policy debate. Headline inflation eased from September, while core prices advanced more than forecast and notched another 0.3% monthly gain.

Core prices had risen 0.2% in July and were flat in June before the three consecutive 0.3% increases. Momentum picked up from those earlier readings, though the missing annual comparison limited what October’s release could show about the year-over-year trend.

Markets repriced risk after the inflation release

Bitcoin, equities and Treasury yields moved lower and higher, respectively

Bitcoin deepened its losses after the release, and U.S. stock-index futures slipped. Treasury yields moved higher: the 10-year yield gained 6.5 basis points to 4.93%, while the two-year yield rose 14 basis points to 4.69%.

Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.15%, and S&P 500 futures dropped 0.5% after turning lower. The two-year yield’s larger increase showed traders assigning a small probability to a 50-basis-point Fed move in December after Waller raised the possibility in the event of strong inflation.

Traders were responding to the prospect of tighter policy. Higher yields improve the returns available from cash and government debt, putting pressure on assets that generate no interest, including Bitcoin and gold.

Leveraged crypto longs were liquidated

About $200 million in crypto long positions were liquidated in the five minutes after the report. Traders betting on rising prices were forced out as Bitcoin and Ether fell during the release window.

Spot gold fell 0.6% to about $4,048 an ounce during the same period after touching $4,040, using OANDA data. It remained near that level by 8:36 a.m. ET. The inflation surprise and rate outlook drove the immediate reaction across these markets, though each asset also faced its own pressures.

Some weakness preceded the report. Bitcoin had traded near $75,000 earlier that Tuesday and had fallen 1.85% in the 24 hours to Monday morning. The release accelerated an existing decline rather than beginning the selling.

Food and energy rose as housing inflation cooled slightly

Food costs picked up from September

Food prices rose 0.5% in October after holding flat in September. Grocery costs increased 0.4%, while restaurant meals climbed 0.5%, adding to the month’s inflationary pressure.

Energy and gasoline figures diverged by measure

Energy costs increased 0.7%, and seasonally adjusted gasoline prices rose 1.0%. Gasoline was 37.4% higher than a year earlier, one of the few annual comparisons available because the BLS had a usable comparison period for that series.

Unadjusted gasoline prices fell 0.7% during October. Seasonal adjustment and the unadjusted measure captured the month differently, while gasoline’s annual comparison remained available without an overall CPI rate.

Housing prices rose more slowly

Housing, the index’s largest component, increased 0.3% in October, down from 0.4% in September. That slower gain provided some relief as food and energy prices climbed.

October’s monthly readings exceeded the cited forecast ranges

Every bank estimate cited for headline CPI was lower

Headline CPI’s 0.4% monthly increase topped the 0.3% consensus forecast. Pre-release bank estimates cited in the coverage ranged from Morgan Stanley’s 0.19% to Wells Fargo’s 0.28%, all below the reported result.

Core CPI also came in above analyst calls

Core CPI rose 0.3%, compared with a 0.2% forecast. The cited bank estimates ranged from Goldman Sachs’ 0.16% to Jefferies’ 0.24%, also below the monthly increase.

The gap against forecasts sharpened the immediate implications for rate expectations. Without year-over-year headline or core rates, however, the release offered only a partial view of annual inflation.

Other inflation readings and the December decision are next

Energy provided a counterpoint to the hotter headline

Energy-price growth slowed from September’s 5.2%, while gasoline prices fell 0.7% before seasonal adjustment. Bitcoin had already dropped 1.85% in the 24 hours to Monday morning, so its decline around the release extended a move already underway.

Treasury supply and producer prices follow

A 10-year Treasury auction was scheduled for the same day as part of a $125 billion Treasury sale. The auction placed government borrowing costs in focus alongside the hotter inflation figures and rising Treasury yields.

Producer-price data was due Friday. Economists estimated October core personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, at 0.23%, an estimate rather than a published result in the October CPI release.

Both events offered bond investors a near-term test. The auction would reveal demand for government debt under higher yields, while the next inflation release would give policymakers more information before their meeting.

The Fed’s December meeting is the next policy milestone

The Federal Reserve’s December decision is the next rate-setting event on the market calendar. October’s hotter-than-expected monthly reading adds to the debate, while missing annual comparisons and upcoming inflation data leave the policy path unsettled.

For now, the picture is mixed: headline inflation rose less than in September, while core inflation held at 0.3% for a third month. The Fed will wait for scheduled producer-price data and other inflation information before deciding in December.

FAQ

When was October CPI released?

The BLS released the October 2026 CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET on November 10. Market moves followed within minutes.

How much did consumer prices rise in October?

Headline CPI increased 0.4% from September, while core CPI rose 0.3%. Both readings exceeded the forecasts cited before the release.

Why did the report omit annual CPI rates?

The BLS did not collect October 2025 prices during the government shutdown, leaving no October 2025 comparison base. The agency therefore published no year-over-year headline or core rate for October 2026.

How much did core CPI exceed its forecast?

Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month against a 0.2% forecast. Bank estimates cited before publication ranged from 0.16% to 0.24%.

How much crypto was liquidated after the release?

About $200 million in crypto long positions were liquidated within five minutes. Bitcoin and Ether fell around the release as the closures occurred.

What inflation data comes next?

Producer prices were due Friday, and economists estimated October core PCE at 0.23%. The Fed’s December rate decision follows as the next policy event.

This article is for information only and is not financial advice.