United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD slipped on Friday but downside momentum remains only tentative. In the very near term, the pair is expected to stay confined between nearby support at 1.2780 and resistance at 1.2815. Over the coming 1–3 weeks, UOB sees scope for modest further Dollar weakness, though a clear break below 1.2765 is viewed as unlikely.

Downward momentum remains only tentative

"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, we expected USD to “trade sideways between 1.2810 and 1.2840.” Instead of trading sideways, USD dipped to 1.2784 before recovering to close 0.14% lower at 1.2804. Downward momentum is increasing, albeit tentatively. Today, USD could edge lower, but it should stay within a 1.2780/1.2815 range."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After USD soared to a high of 1.2871 last Wednesday, we highlighted on Thursday (15 Oct, spot at 1.2845) that USD “must break and hold above 1.2870 before a move to 1.2900 can be expected.” On Friday, USD fell and broke below our ‘strong support’ level at 1.2795. Upward momentum has faded with the breach of the ‘strong support’, and there has been a tentative buildup in downward momentum. From here, USD may edge lower, but based on the prevailing momentum, any decline is unlikely to break the support at 1.2765. On the upside, a breach of 1.2830 (‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that USD is more likely to range-trade rather than edging lower."

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